Britain needs Europe a lot more than Europe needs Britain
by Dennis Novy
The UK will hold a referendum on its EU membership before the end of 2017. Dennis Novy writes that a divorce from the EU would risk putting the UK in a weaker economic position. Among the reasons he quotes, he mentions an often overlooked issue: that Britain simply does not have the administrative expertise to carry out some of the functions that the EU currently fulfils on behalf of its member states.
The option of Britain leaving the European Union sounds superficially attractive. Who doesn’t like the idea of freedom and independence? But it isn’t as simple. In fact, Britain needs Europe a lot more than Europe needs Britain. Isolation is costly.
Look at international trade. The British economy is heavily exposed to the European Union. The EU is by a mile Britain’s biggest trading partner, covering roughly 45 per cent of imports and exports. In the other direction, Britain is only responsible for less than 10 percent of trade of other EU countries. This asymmetry inevitably results from the fact that the British economy is relatively small compared to the rest of Europe.
To facilitate trade with the European Union, Britain has an interest to adopt the regulations that govern EU trade and investment, with the Single Market at the core. At the moment, Britain still has a place at the negotiating table and plays a part in determining those regulations.
If Brexit happened, Britain would become a passive receiver. This would be the model of Norway and Switzerland. Those countries adopt the same regulations but have essentially zero say. By the way, Norway makes an annual financial contribution to the EU in return for access to the Single Market. From 2009 to 2014, Norway paid almost 1.8bn euros.
Look at foreign direct investment. Britain has historically received a disproportionately large share of investment coming from non-EU countries. Yes, Britain has an English-language advantage and generally a pro-business climate. But another major reason has been that Britain was perceived by foreigners as an export platform that benefits from easy access to the EU and similar regulations and standards. Once Britain left the EU, this advantage would be eroded.
Look at immigration. It is tempting to blame Britain’s problems on immigrants. However, academic research shows that we need immigration to pay our bills. One reason is the declining fertility of the native British population. Another reason is the skills gap in the British labour market.